Anyone tracking the entertainment industry knows the drill: a couple of blockbusters can easily offset a multitude of duds. The last few years at Warner Bros. serve as a prime example. While titles like "Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga," "Joker: Folie à Deux," "The Alto Knights," and "Mickey 17" sparked concerns about the legendary studio's future, the unexpected successes of "Sinners" and "The Minecraft Movie" rode in to save the day, collectively grossing an astounding $1.5 billion.
The video game industry, though often operating in its own sphere, follows a remarkably similar hit-to-miss ratio as film and television. And right now, it seems the Xbox ecosystem is feeling the sting of this formula.
Xbox's Faltering Footing
After a string of underwhelming releases, the Xbox brand appears to be in trouble. Even games that find success on PC platforms like Steam are failing to gain traction on Xbox. This trend is a significant problem. When consumers opt out of playing games on Xbox, it means they're not engaging with Microsoft's "walled garden," where the company aims to sell its latest software and hardware.
Peeking Behind the Curtain: TrueAchievements Data
To understand the scope of this issue, I spent some time delving into the data provided by TrueAchievements. This insightful platform meticulously tracks how many times Xbox players unlock achievements for games. While no data set is perfect, my goal was to identify broad trends - from the most commonly earned achievement to how many players stuck with a game over time.
My Approach
I analyzed data for approximately 70 Xbox games, focusing on two key metrics: the popularity of the most-earned achievement and the median number of achievements won. I then looked at the difference between these two figures. My simple theory is this: a "hit" game will exhibit high numbers for both its most popular achievement and the median number of achievements, indicating strong player engagement and a minimal drop-off.
To establish a baseline, I examined data from past Xbox hits, such as older entries in the Dragon Age and Assassin's Creed series, and classics like Halo 3. What I found is concerning: new Xbox releases are not performing well. While the shorter time since release for newer titles naturally impacts overall achievement numbers, the drop-offs I observed are so significant that the release window alone cannot explain the disparity.
Recent Releases
| Game | 1st Achievement | Median Achievement | Drop |
| Starfield | 442,475 | 104,873 | -76% |
| Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 | 280,857 | 115,674 | -59% |
| Indiana Jones and the Great Circle | 254,957 | 95,951 | -62% |
| The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion Remastered | 186,942 | 23,666 | -87% |
| Avowed | 156,143 | 18,641 | -88% |
| Redfall | 152,566 | 16,072 | -89% |
| Clair Obscur | 132,636 | 43,784 | -67% |
| DOOM: The Dark Ages | 128,339 | 22,809 | -82% |
| The First Descendant | 125,001 | 36,735 | -71% |
| Baldur's Gate 3 | 94,432 | 24,527 | -74% |
| EA FC 24 | 89,371 | 28,251 | -68% |
| NINJA GAIDEN 2 Black | 80,940 | 20,736 | -74% |
| South of Midnight | 76,234 | 29,680 | -61% |
| Crime Scene Cleaner | 72,774 | 27,106 | -63% |
| Atomfall | 61,423 | 15,826 | -74% |
| Assassin's Creed: Shadows | 60,911 | 18,393 | -70% |
| EA FC 25 | 48,286 | 15,703 | -67% |
| Star Wars Outlaws | 43,784 | 13,787 | -69% |
| Monster Hunter Wilds | 38,982 | 19,590 | -50% |
| Dragon Age: The Veilguard | 27,886 | 12,644 | -55% |
| Split Fiction | 23,625 | 9,722 | -59% |
| Kingdom Come: Deliverance II | 16,575 | 4,962 | -70% |
| Blue Prince | 8,668 | 1,398 | -84% |
| Commandos: Origins | 2,775 | 219 | -92% |
| Sid Meier's Civilization VII | 1,345 | 288 | -79% |
| MotoGP 25 | 228 | 68 | -70% |
Five games jump off this list as massive failures as far as performance on the Xbox.
1. Assassin's Creed: Shadows
Despite a historically large and loyal following on Xbox, this year's Assassin's Creed: Shadows has seen a severe drop-off in performance. While still a relatively new release, its figures are notably low, not only within its own franchise but also compared to recent comparable titles like South of Midnight, Doom, Clair Obscur, and Crime Scene Cleaner. Shadows was likely expected to perform at least three times better, highlighting a significant failure for what is clearly a tentpole franchise within the Xbox ecosystem.
| Game | 1st A | Median A |
| Assassin's Creed | 435,672 | 215,743 |
| Assassin's Creed II | 443,705 | 300,760 |
| Assassin's Creed III | 362,555 | 131,078 |
| Assassin's Creed IV | 383,618 | 144,949 |
| Assassin's Creed Origins | 332,065 | 166,550 |
| Assassin's Creed Odyssey | 393,308 | 164,460 |
| Assassin's Creed Valhalla | 347,008 | 96,496 |
| Assassin's Creed: Shadows | 60,911 | 18,393 |
2. Redfall and Avowed
In comparison to other recent releases, these games were snapped up by Xbox users but a quick look at how many stuck with the game is stark. Almost 90% of players dropped off of both of these games before the rough halfway point. Redfall was likely due to bugs and being unfinished. Avowed seems to be, well, it's just not engaging enough, which may be worse because customers will learn not to trust you.
3. Star Wars Outlaws
It's hard to overstate how much of a failure it is to fumble a Star Wars open world game. They missed every metric I can find.
4. Dragon Age: The Veilgaurd
First off, there's no good reason a new Dragon Age installment should take this long. After a rapid release schedule from 2009-2014, the series went quiet for a decade. Looking at the metrics, Dragon Age: Inquisition performed well (with 261k players earning its most popular Achievement), despite the prevailing social media sentiment around its 2014 launch. The Veilgaurd is an unmitigated disaster.
The Bottom... Line
Five games, once heralded as potential catalysts for daily Xbox engagement, cratered spectacularly, failing to draw the anticipated hundreds of thousands of players. While a few missteps are par for the course, such a string of failures without any standout successes to offset them has plunged Xbox into a profound predicament. This, I believe, imperils their strategic hardware initiatives.
Much like cinematic audiences, consumers are increasingly reluctant to spend on subpar quality. This ranges from bug-riddled releases and the integration of niche ideologies into flagship titles to, perhaps, a perceived decline in development prowess among a younger generation compared to their predecessors.
Solutions exist, but their implementation feels contingent on financial desperation. For Xbox, that reckoning may arrive sooner than anticipated.
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Questions, Comments: ljbaby654@gmail.com
Full list that I bounced new games off of (sorted by my favorite-for-now metric "Median Achievement" which means players spending a lot of time on Xbox):
| Game | 1st Achievement | Median Achievement | Drop |
| Assassin's Creed II | 443,705 | 300,760 | -32% |
| Gears of War 2 | 500,959 | 263,874 | -47% |
| Fallout 4 | 555,347 | 233,625 | -58% |
| Halo 3 | 456,843 | 227,299 | -50% |
| Destiny 2 | 463,644 | 224,071 | -52% |
| Skyrim | 409,467 | 220,261 | -46% |
| Assassin's Creed | 435,672 | 215,743 | -50% |
| Fallout 3 | 469,016 | 177,399 | -62% |
| Far Cry 5 | 421,015 | 174,704 | -59% |
| Assassin's Creed Origins | 332,065 | 166,550 | -50% |
| Assassin's Creed Odyssey | 393,308 | 164,460 | -58% |
| GTA V (Xbox 360) | 487,435 | 159,302 | -67% |
| Assassin's Creed IV | 383,618 | 144,949 | -62% |
| Red Dead Redemption | 514,110 | 141,079 | -73% |
| Red Dead Redemption 2 | 574,665 | 139,876 | -76% |
| Assassin's Creed III | 362,555 | 131,078 | -64% |
| Among Us | 255,716 | 117,541 | -54% |
| Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 | 280,857 | 115,674 | -59% |
| Firewatch | 146,854 | 104,903 | -29% |
| Starfield | 442,475 | 104,873 | -76% |
| Rise of the Tomb Raider | 347,237 | 98,548 | -72% |
| Cyberpunk 2077 | 368,056 | 98,461 | -73% |
| Assassin's Creed Valhalla | 347,008 | 96,496 | -72% |
| Indiana Jones and the Great Circle | 254,957 | 95,951 | -62% |
| Star Wars Jedi: Survivor | 181,484 | 85,539 | -53% |
| The Witcher 3 | 237,904 | 85,215 | -64% |
| Dragon Age: Inquisition | 260,805 | 74,868 | -71% |
| Dragon Age: Origins | 191,458 | 74,493 | -61% |
| A Plague Tale: Requiem | 153,154 | 71,999 | -53% |
| Fortnite | 287,686 | 67,398 | -77% |
| The Outer Worlds | 365,731 | 56,241 | -85% |
| Clair Obscur | 132,636 | 43,784 | -67% |
| GTA V (Xbox Series) | 233,872 | 43,187 | -82% |
| Dishonored | 246,066 | 40,621 | -83% |
| Battlefield Hardline | 279,447 | 38,605 | -86% |
| The First Descendant | 125,001 | 36,735 | -71% |
| South of Midnight | 76,234 | 29,680 | -61% |
| EA FC 24 | 89,371 | 28,251 | -68% |
| Crime Scene Cleaner | 72,774 | 27,106 | -63% |
| Baldur's Gate 3 | 94,432 | 24,527 | -74% |
| The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion Remastered | 186,942 | 23,666 | -87% |
| DOOM: The Dark Ages | 128,339 | 22,809 | -82% |
| EA FC 23 (FIFA 23) | 88,745 | 20,824 | -77% |
| NINJA GAIDEN 2 Black | 80,940 | 20,736 | -74% |
| Monster Hunter Wilds | 38,982 | 19,590 | -50% |
| Avowed | 156,143 | 18,641 | -88% |
| Assassin's Creed: Shadows | 60,911 | 18,393 | -70% |
| Redfall | 152,566 | 16,072 | -89% |
| Atomfall | 61,423 | 15,826 | -74% |
| EA FC 25 | 48,286 | 15,703 | -67% |
| Assassin's Creed III Remastered | 103,723 | 15,641 | -85% |
| Star Wars Outlaws | 43,784 | 13,787 | -69% |
| Dragon Age: The Veilguard | 27,886 | 12,644 | -55% |
| Kingdom Come: Deliverance | 91,049 | 10,764 | -88% |
| Split Fiction | 23,625 | 9,722 | -59% |
| Kingdom Come: Deliverance II | 16,575 | 4,962 | -70% |
| Return to Monkey Island | 25,789 | 4,519 | -82% |
| Retro Classics | 41,965 | 3,827 | -91% |
| Blue Prince | 8,668 | 1,398 | -84% |
| Sid Meier's Civilization VII | 1,345 | 288 | -79% |
| Commandos: Origins | 2,775 | 219 | -92% |
| Fatal Fury: City of the Wolves | 850 | 209 | -75% |
| MotoGP 25 | 228 | 68 | -70% |
| RollerCoaster Tycoon 3 Complete Edition | 287 | 58 | -80% |
| Big Buck Hunter: Ultimate Trophy | 39 | 21 | -46% |
| FragPunk | 9,688 | 10 | -100% |
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Questions, comments: ljbaby654@gmail.com
