Game Pass is to Blame for Outer Worlds 2 Failure (but not in the way you think)

The recent launch of The Outer Worlds 2 has raised some serious questions regarding the health of Xbox’s first-party ecosystem. While we don't have the full internal sales spreadsheet, the numbers we can see tell a story of a sequel struggling to find its footing.

The Data: TrueAchievements as a Bellwether

I’ve been tracking data on TrueAchievements for over a year, and it’s becoming an incredibly reliable indicator for Xbox engagement. Because it tracks achievement unlocks, it shows us who is actually playing, not just who clicked "install."

  • The Slump: Industry analysts suggest The Outer Worlds 2 is selling roughly 50% less than the original.

  • The Correlation: My tracking on TrueAchievements mirrors this perfectly; player engagement is significantly lower compared to the first game’s launch window.

The "Avowed" Hangover

Quality doesn't exist in a vacuum. I believe The Outer Worlds 2 was hobbled by its sibling release, Avowed.

  • The Skyrim Comparison: Obsidian marketed Avowed as a "Skyrim-esque" experience. People flocked to it, found it lacking, and dropped off quickly.

  • Brand Fatigue: When a developer releases a "meh" game, fans remember. The disappointment from Avowed likely bled directly into the lukewarm reception for Outer Worlds 2.

Is Game Pass the New Blockbuster Video?

Historically, rental services like Blockbuster thrived on "mid-tier" content, the movies you weren't willing to pay $15 for at the cinema, but would risk $3 to rent.

Game Pass is starting to feel like that local video store. There’s an argument to be made that Microsoft has lowered the quality bar. Whether that’s due to shifting hiring practices over the last five years or a lack of creative direction, the result is the same: The "Meh" Factor. > "If a game is great, people will buy it to own. If it’s mediocre, they’ll wait for the cheapest way to play it."

By making everything available via subscription, Microsoft may have inadvertently colored their entire library as "rental quality." If the audience perceives the service as a home for games not worth a $70 investment, the "prestige" of the Xbox brand continues to erode.

I haven't moved to the PS5 yet, but looking at the PS4 on my desk, and the legacy of the PS2 and PS3 consoles I keep in storage, it’s clear that PlayStation’s brand prestige has actually been elevated by the current state of Xbox and Game Pass. When your competitor becomes a budget-focused service, your brand naturally feels more 'premium.' It’s a dangerous spot for Microsoft. Think back twenty years: Kmart could have stocked the highest-quality goods in the world, but it still would have been perceived as 'Kmart quality.' 

Xbox is on a slippery slope where the brand name itself might soon imply 'budget' rather than 'best.